Verstappen’s Title Hopes on the Line: How He Could Be Eliminated in Las Vegas
After four years of dominance, Max Verstappen’s reign as Formula 1 World Champion is in serious jeopardy. The 2025 season has been defined by the resurgence of McLaren, and as the paddock sets up under the neon lights of Las Vegas, Verstappen faces the very real possibility of being mathematically eliminated from the title race.
Following a dramatic São Paulo Grand Prix that saw Lando Norris take a dominant victory, the Red Bull driver finds himself in the unfamiliar position of the underdog. With only three rounds remaining, the 49-point gap to Norris may be too much to overcome.
Here is the breakdown of the championship stakes and the scenarios that could see Verstappen’s quest for a fifth consecutive title end on the Las Vegas Strip.
📈 The Current Standings (Pre-Las Vegas)
The last race in Brazil solidified McLaren’s position at the top, though Verstappen kept his slim hopes alive with a remarkable charge from the pit lane to secure a podium.
The 2025 F1 World Championship battle is now a three-horse race, but two horses are much further ahead.
- 1st: Lando Norris (McLaren) – 390 points
- 2nd: Oscar Piastri (McLaren) – 366 points
- 3rd: Max Verstappen (Red Bull) – 341 points
Verstappen trails his primary rival, Lando Norris, by 49 points. He is also 25 points behind the second McLaren of Oscar Piastri.
🎰 The Remaining Points
To understand the elimination scenarios, we must look at the points still on offer. After Las Vegas, two events remain:
- Qatar Grand Prix: This is a Sprint weekend, meaning a maximum of 34 points are available (8 for Sprint win, 25 for GP win, 1 for fastest lap).
- Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: A standard race weekend, offering a maximum of 26 points (25 for win, 1 for fastest lap).
This means that after the chequered flag waves in Las Vegas, a total of 60 points will still be available for a driver to score.
🎲 The Elimination Scenarios: How It Could End for Max
The mathematics for Verstappen are painfully simple. He must leave Las Vegas trailing the championship leader by 60 points or less to stay in the fight. If the gap to Norris (or Piastri) grows to 61 points or more, he is officially eliminated.
Verstappen currently trails Norris by 49 points. This means if Norris outscores Verstappen by 12 points or more this weekend, Verstappen’s title challenge is over.
Here are the most likely scenarios that would eliminate Verstappen in Las Vegas:
- Scenario 1: A Norris Victory
- If Lando Norris wins the race (+25 points), Verstappen must finish at least P7 (+6 points) to stay in contention.
- If Norris wins and Verstappen finishes P8 (+4 points) or lower (including a DNF), Norris’s lead would grow to at least 61 points (49 + 25 – 4 = 70), and Verstappen would be eliminated.
- Scenario 2: A McLaren 1-2
- If Norris finishes P1 and Piastri finishes P2, Verstappen would be eliminated unless he finished P6 or higher.
- In this scenario, Verstappen must also ensure he doesn’t fall more than 60 points behind Piastri, though this is less likely given their current 25-point gap.
- Scenario 3: A Red Bull Disaster
- Even if Norris has an average race, a DNF or a non-points finish for Verstappen would be catastrophic.
- If Verstappen scores 0 points, Norris only needs to finish P4 (+12 points) to create the 61-point gap (49 + 12 = 61) needed to secure the elimination.
🏁 What Verstappen Needs to Survive
To keep his championship hopes alive, Verstappen’s goal is not just to win but to close the gap. At a minimum, he cannot lose more than 11 points to Lando Norris.
The pressure is entirely on the four-time champion and the Red Bull team. After a challenging 2025 campaign that has seen their dominance shattered by McLaren, Las Vegas is more than just a spectacle—it’s a high-stakes elimination round. Verstappen must deliver a near-perfect weekend to take the fight to Qatar.
Sources
- Total Motorsport (2025). 2025 F1 Sao Paulo GP standings: Norris extends title lead.
- GPFans (2025). 2025 F1 Driver Standings.
- Times of India (2025). Formula 1: Norris wins Brazil GP, Verstappen’s pit-lane charge earns impressive podium.
- Formula1.com (2025). 2025 F1 Driver Standings.
- Wikipedia (2025). 2025 Formula One World Championship.