F1 2026 Winter Testing: Ferrari and Mercedes Lead the Pack as Aston Martin’s Honda Nightmare Deepens
The Bahrain pre-season tests have concluded, revealing a clear hierarchy at the front while exposing a crisis at the back of the grid.
After two weeks of intensive running at the Bahrain International Circuit, the 2026 Formula 1 pre-season testing program has drawn to a close. The radical new regulations—featuring active aerodynamics, manual override modes, and overhauled power units—have created a fascinating competitive landscape that already shows distinct winners and losers.
The Front Runners: Ferrari and Mercedes Set the Pace
Ferrari and Mercedes have emerged as the teams to beat heading into the season-opening Australian Grand Prix. Charles Leclerc topped the final timesheets with a blistering 1:31.992, eight-tenths clear of the field . While testing times can be deceptive, the consensus from rival teams confirms the Scuderia’s strong position.
McLaren team principal Andrea Stella offered perhaps the most candid assessment: « In terms of understanding the competitive order I would say that this test has confirmed that Ferrari and Mercedes look like the teams to beat » . McLaren CEO Zak Brown echoed this sentiment, placing his own team « in the big four » but admitting they sit behind the leading duo .
Ferrari’s innovation caught everyone’s attention, particularly a radical rear wing that physically flips upside down in straight-line mode to reduce drag—a creative interpretation of the active aerodynamics rules that Williams principal James Vowles praised as « great innovations » . The team also demonstrated exceptional launch performance, with both Lewis Hamilton and Leclerc executing rapid getaway practice starts that could prove decisive in races .
Mercedes, meanwhile, showed consistent pace across both single-lap and long-run simulations. Kimi Antonelli set the second-fastest time of the week at 1:32.803, while long-run data suggested the W47’s true pace may be even stronger than headline times indicated . George Russell and Antonelli completed 714 laps of reliable running, giving the team confidence heading to Melbourne .
McLaren and Red Bull: Close but Not Quite There
Reigning champions McLaren covered the most distance of any team—817 laps—demonstrating the reliability of their Mercedes-powered MCL40 . Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris posted competitive times, with Piastri’s 1:32.861 placing him third overall . However, Stella admitted his squad remains slightly adrift of the leading pair, though firmly part of the top four .
Red Bull adopted a low-profile approach, completing 672 laps with Max Verstappen at the wheel . The RB22 appeared fourth-fastest in raw pace, though insiders suggest the team has not shown its full hand. Verstappen is reportedly satisfied with the car’s baseline, crucial given Red Bull’s transition to full power unit manufacturing .
The Crisis: Aston Martin and Honda in Deep Trouble
While the front of the grid looks competitive, the back tells a different story. Aston Martin’s 2026 campaign is in jeopardy before it has even begun. The Silverstone squad completed just 334 laps across the entire test—the lowest of any team—with a best time nearly four seconds off the pace .
The root cause lies with new engine supplier Honda. Battery-related failures plagued the AMR26, with Fernando Alonso grinding to a halt on track during the penultimate day . Honda admitted to a parts shortage and adapted the final day’s program to « very limited » short stints only, with 30-minute gaps between runs to analyze data .
The atmosphere within the team has been described as « bleak » and « shell-shocked » . Team owner Lawrence Stroll was visibly furious in the paddock, while Adrian Newey—whose much-hyped arrival was meant to transform the team—spent much of the test avoiding media scrutiny . Alonso faces the prospect of fighting newcomer Cadillac simply to avoid last place in the early rounds .
What This Means for Melbourne
The 2026 season promises intense competition at the front, with Ferrari and Mercedes holding early advantages but McLaren and Red Bull within striking distance. The development race will be fierce—Zak Brown noted that whoever starts fastest may not finish the season on top .
For Aston Martin, the challenge is existential. Without proper testing mileage, the team heads to Australia blind, hoping reliability issues don’t result in double retirements. After years of investment and the recruitment of Newey, the 2026 regulations were supposed to be their moment. Instead, they face a potential annihilation.
The lights go out in Melbourne in two weeks. The hierarchy is set—now the racing begins.
Sources: :
- ESPN – « F1 predicted running order for 2026: Who is on top of the new cars? » (February 21, 2026)
- GPblog – « McLaren boss singles out the ‘teams to beat’ in candid pecking order verdict » (February 21, 2026)
- The Race – « Bahrain F1 2026 test two winners and losers » (February 21, 2026)
- Formula1.com – « What we learned from Day 2 of the second 2026 pre-season test in Bahrain » (February 20, 2026)
- The Race – « Aston Martin nightmare continues as Honda problems limit test run plan » (February 21, 2026)
- Racer – « Ferrari innovation catches the eye as Mercedes again leads McLaren in F1 pre-season testing » (February 20, 2026)
- McLaren.com – « 2026 Bahrain Pre-Season Testing 2 – Day 2 » (February 20, 2026)
- ESPN – « F1 predicted running order for 2026: Aston Martin analysis » (February 21, 2026)